tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post8244478380656549767..comments2008-11-17T22:24:55.754-06:00Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-5849554746253797342008-11-17T22:24:00.000-06:002008-11-17T22:24:00.000-06:00tried to determine truth of the confidence, and then whether there's an anti-truth.<BR/><BR/>example: arizona prediction by pickles is +10, but the spread is +3.5. pickles confidence in saying that's true is only 43%. so, is it true that either: the prediction is ambiguous, or the pick vs. the spread is ambiguous. the perfect algorithm is a tricky problem.<BR/><BR/>good luck pickles!stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01856257698235925029noreply@blogger.com