Comments on Statistics Beats the NFL Point Spread: 2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6

Yes, two blowouts and yes Go Broncos!

2009-10-18T20:16:02.524-05:00

Yes, two blowouts and yes Go Broncos!

0-5 here hahah. Oh god...

2009-10-18T18:48:41.051-05:00

0-5 here hahah. Oh god...

Wow, two blow-outs against the spread. One good a...

2009-10-18T18:38:22.549-05:00

Wow, two blow-outs against the spread. One good and one bad.

Personally, I went 0-3 today. Nothing looked like I expected.

Go Broncos!

Well, no wagering for a few weeks while I get sett...

2009-10-16T12:29:11.127-05:00

Well, no wagering for a few weeks while I get settled. I don't presently have an online account, so I'll have to work out that whole process.

Then there's the fact that my accuracy in the late weeks has been horrible for the past 3 or 4 years.. so, I'm probably done for the season.

Next year, though, I shall be ready to provide more tasty fadeable picks!

Why no wagers? It might actually be a lot easier t...

2009-10-16T12:23:10.482-05:00

Why no wagers? It might actually be a lot easier to place wagers online with a non-US cc.

Off to Malaysia... of all places. I will be check...

2009-10-16T12:22:01.025-05:00

Off to Malaysia... of all places. I will be checking on this site each week, I'm sure. I might even adopt your picks as my own for rooting purposes, since I'll have no wagers!

I need this Titans win this week to even get close to the 7:5 we talked about!

Good luck.

dtBy, I wish you the best! What country are you g...

2009-10-16T12:13:21.315-05:00

dtBy,

I wish you the best! What country are you going to? They have internet, hopefully, which at least lets you keep track of how well we are doing over here week by week.

Best,

Jaime

Dimitry, Thanks for the correction, I meant to sa...

2009-10-16T12:10:18.078-05:00

Dimitry,

Thanks for the correction, I meant to say Westbrook.

Pickles, You mentioned "Parker" in you Philli game...

2009-10-16T12:01:22.366-05:00

Pickles, You mentioned "Parker" in you Philli game analysis. I assume you meant Willie Parker and are confusing Philli with Pittsburg?

Disagreement! I've got the Titans +9.5, though I w...

2009-10-16T06:53:54.995-05:00

Disagreement! I've got the Titans +9.5, though I would have also taken them +9.

I agree with the Broncos pick.

Sadly, this is my last week of NFL handicapping, at least for a while. I'm leaving the country for a job.

Good luck/

Hey Jaime, Great week last week! My picks compare...

2009-10-15T22:18:13.181-05:00

Hey Jaime,

Great week last week! My picks compared to yours are:

TEN +9
PHI -14
DEN +4

I'm not sure I will bet any of the 3 above. I have a feeling NE will cover but my numbers say other-wise; they just haven't been very consistent this year.

PHI's defense is not as good as NYG's, but I believe it's good enough to cover the points vs OAK.

SD is my team so I don't bet against them, but the numbers say DEN covers.

Good luck this week!

Joel, No one every really knows. This is a probab...

2009-10-15T21:44:45.572-05:00

Joel,

No one every really knows. This is a probability game and there is never a 100% probability of a cover (regardless of what other handicappers claim).

Trusting the model comes by back-testing and making picks in real life like what you and I are doing. I do think that picking games is 80% science and 20% art. You have to know your models well enough to know when they work, when they don't, what games seem like a trap, which players are injured, how the weather can affect the game, etc.

Wow Happy how cool!

2009-10-15T16:22:57.562-05:00

Wow Happy how cool!

You are one of only three websites posting truly f...

2009-10-15T15:59:44.561-05:00

You are one of only three websites posting truly free NFL picks (actually 2.5) kudos! Thanks for publishing this very useful content! I’ve created a table comparing our spreads (BOBB stands for based on Brian Burke, a NY Times sports writer who publishes NFL probabilities and is the Webmaster of Advanced NFL stats). Happy is me and Pickles is you. The Vegas line used was what Covers.com had as their average line on Wednesday evening. Games my model bet on are in bold.

Pickles
BOBB
Happy
Vegas

CIN -3.8
CIN -4.4
CIN -0.4
CIN -4.5

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GB -10
GB -12
GB -15.4
GB -13.5
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MIN +1.0
MIN -3.6
MIN -4.2
MIN -3.0
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NO -4.5
NO -4.8
NO -2.7
NO -3.0
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PIT -15.1
PIT -16.4
PIT -14.3
PIT -14.0
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TB +8.6
TB +2.2
TB +5.7
TB +3.0

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WAS -9.8
WAS -7.4
WAS -5.5
WAS -6.5
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JAC -16.7
JAC -14.1
JAC -11.9
JAC -9.5

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SEA +7.5
SEA -1.5
SEA +0.4
SEA -3.0
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OAK +22.2
OAK +14.0
OAK +15.0
OAK +14.0
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NE -12.6
NE -2.8
NE -7.1
NE -9.5

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NYJ -11.0
NYJ -8.8
NYJ -6.9
NYJ -10.0

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ATL +2.4
ATL -4.0
ATL -2.5
ATL -3.0

Jaime, it is really hard for me to grip the idea ...

2009-10-15T10:10:57.796-05:00

Jaime, it is really hard for me to grip the idea that an NFL team is just that BAD. For the Eagles and Raiders line, my prediction is practically the exact same as the line itself.

There are two problems that are hard to when making picks that I come across.
#1: Trust the model. It may see something that you don't and avoid the human bias.
#2 Human bias isn't necessarily a bad thing, if you have your information correct. But do you ever really know? Plus, modeling human behavior is hard as hell. Your most likely never going to get a great relationship.

To be honest, I'm more on the side of trusting the model, so much as it is a good one (but do you REALLY ever know?). So far it has been a decent 2009. (If you want the website for my picks, I'll e-mail it to you, I really just made it for some friends, so its simplistic.)

As for the Bengals, the Texans have disappointed nearly every game this season regarding spreads. I really expected them to come out shining this year, but it just isn't the case. I'll stick to the Bengals. Guess we will see!

I also added the pick:
Steelers -14

The browns just did so horribly last game. Did you see Anderson's total passing yards?

My top 4 picks this week--Patriots and Denver are ...

2009-10-15T06:11:45.257-05:00

My top 4 picks this week--Patriots and Denver are my best 2 and its scary because those are also 2 of yours. The other 2 Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

Joel, I have to admit, this week it was a lot hard...

2009-10-14T23:33:44.884-05:00

Joel, I have to admit, this week it was a lot harder than last week. But you would pick Oakland if you had to? We'll see about that. After all the controversy this week, Donnovan will show Rush Limbaugh that he is not underrated.

As you can see from my table, I would agree with your Jets, Lions, and Jaguars pick.

The Bengals, I'm not so sure about. I think their record reflects a couple of lucky TD passes and not a really strong team. Yes, they're young and have whole new staff, but they will come down. After this, all their previously misbehaved players will return to their old ways.

I should also say you are doing very well the past...

2009-10-14T08:21:35.646-05:00

I should also say you are doing very well the past few weeks. Congrats.

Hmmmm, for the first week, I can say I'm not betti...

2009-10-14T08:20:37.150-05:00

Hmmmm, for the first week, I can say I'm not betting on any of these games.

If I were, these would be my picks:

New England -9
Raiders +14
Chargers -4

Again, I don't have much faith in any of these picks.

This week I'm looking at

Jets -10
Lions +14
Jaguars -10
Bengals -4.5