Week 16 NFL Point Spread Picks

Great week last week 3-0 ATS and two push. Keep it rolling. Huge upsets last week, are they creating recency bias? Some teams are checked out and we capitalize on it. Let's break down 4 solid picks for week 16.

Miami -3

Looks like Derrek Carr is back at the helm this week. With 5 interceptions in last 4 complete games, looks like Miami's defense which ranks #2 in interceptions will have itself a feast. The Raiders are one of those teams that seem to have checked out of this season. Although Miami is winning in ugly ways, Tua is getting better. The covering machine of the Dolphins are 11-3 ATS and are only a 3 point favorite against a bad defense. Couple more points for why I like the Dolphins in this spot:

  • Raiders defense ranks 29th in the league and 30th against the rush
  • Raiders fired defensive coordinator Ryan Guenther showing signs of a debacle of the team
  • Not only is Miami good ATS this year, but Brian Flores is 20-6 ATS since he got the head coaching job
  • The statistical models predicted the Dolphins last week right on the nose. This week posted it at 6 but models fluctuate more closely to 10 and 13 point differential
  • Since 2010 road favorites by 3 are 54.4% ATS across 190 games. This year they are 11-1 ATS.
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