NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17 2018

Pick 1: Chicago +4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City -13.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Seattle -13 incorrect NFL point spread pick

There's nowhere to go but up. Yes, I just saw Mary Poppins and that's how I feel about this year. It can't get worse. I've had forty some percent years before but not as low as this week. My models have tended to favor visiting teams and home dogs are like at 57% this year. In reality, they should adjust over the course of the season and they haven't so idk yet what's behind all this but I'm determined to figure it out. Maybe it's the luck of the draw, injuries, the bugs at the beginning, whatever no excuses. At least I'm feeling a bit optimistic for the playoffs bc traditionally even in bad years the picks are solid. For week 17 most years I shy away from making picks, but this year we need at least some momentum going into the playoffs. There are a few games that teams are playing for bye or for their spot that came out with decent confidence. Here are week 17 NFL machine learning picks:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -4.5 -3.30 1.17 59.09
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -13.5 -16.30 -2.83 58.17
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -13.0 -21.30 -8.33 57.85
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -3.5 -2.30 1.17 55.52
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -7.30 6.83 55.06
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -14.5 -10.30 4.23 52.17
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS -6.0 1.00 5.04 51.28
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -6.5 -10.80 -4.27 50.06
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -6.0 -7.30 -1.33 50.00
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 1.5 -1.30 0.22 50.00
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY -8.0 -6.70 1.30 48.37
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -12.00 -5.50 48.37
SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS -9.5 -14.70 -5.21 45.29
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -7.5 -14.70 -7.21 NA
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON 7.0 -3.70 -10.67 NA
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE 3.0 6.50 3.50 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: New Orleans -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Detroit +6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Arizona +14.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Washington +10 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Miami -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Very tough week. Rough on not only bets but on confidence in the whole process. I'm hoping things turn around not only this week but that we get a wildly successful playoff run and continue or 7 year streak predicting the Super Bowl right. Not even going to bother explaining why the picks below will turn the tide this week. Let's just post them.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -10.00 -4.49 62.63
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT 6.0 -3.12 -9.12 61.66
LA RAMS @ ARIZONA 14.5 10.00 -4.48 59.00
WASHINGTON @ TENNESSEE -10.00 -2.80 7.21 58.67
JACKSONVILLE @ MIAMI -4.50 -7.20 -2.69 57.09
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.00 12.20 8.19 55.58
BALTIMORE @ LA CHARGERS -4.50 -7.00 -2.48 55.17
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND -7.00 -2.80 4.16 53.07
NY GIANTS @ INDIANAPOLIS -9.50 -11.10 -1.58 52.17
GREEN BAY @ NY JETS 3.0 2.80 0.21 50.43
KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE 2.50 -1.20 -3.65 50.12
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS -7.00 -8.30 -1.26 49.00
DENVER @ OAKLAND 3.00 7.90 4.94 45.82
HOUSTON @ PHILADELPHIA -1.00 4.20 5.21 NA Foles
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -12.50 -24.60 -12.08 NA Gordon
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -3.00 -1.80 1.21 NA Newton

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Denver -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona +9 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Seattle -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

1) Cleveland's rushing D is horrible. Lindsay and the Broncos bounce back with a great win at home.
2) Atlanta a 9 point favorite? A great confidence spot for a road team. Arizona is horrible but has covered in almost half of the games this year.
3) SF's stock is high after that huge upset last week. Seattle's D is one of the best in the league and their offense will show up this week.

Honorable mentions: Da Bears, Minnesota @ home, New Orleans but can they win outside on grass?

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ DENVER -3.0 -10.50 -7.50 61.80
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA -9.0 -4.20 4.83 59.78
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.0 13.70 9.73 58.82
MIAMI @ MINNESOTA -7.0 -10.30 -3.31 55.37
DETROIT @ BUFFALO -2.5 4.80 7.31 54.92
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA 6.5 14.70 8.23 54.72
TENNESSEE @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -1.50 0.97 54.52
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO -6.0 -8.60 -2.56 50.00
OAKLAND @ CINCINNATI -3.0 -3.80 -0.83 50.10
LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY -3.5 -1.80 1.68 50.00
DALLAS @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 0.40 2.88 50.00
TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE -8.0 -7.70 -0.30 49.13
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH 1.5 7.20 5.69 47.33
HOUSTON @ NY JETS 6.5 4.50 -2.00 47.00
WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE -7.0 -2.50 4.50 NA
PHILADELPHIA @ LA RAMS -11.0 -13.30 -2.31 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Seattle -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -8 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Denver -6 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Another devastating week! With all the injuries in place, it was hard picking games where the data was reliable. After doing a deep dive on the machine learning models predicting the spread that was recently re-written, I found a bug that was affecting this year but not the last. Mainly I was using data in the model from early last year that I didn't intend to. Although this mistake of mine has cost me money and reputation, I'm glad I found it now and be ready for the coming weeks and the playoffs.

In retrospect, Seattle, Denver, Patriots, and Arizona should've been easy picks. 14 points for Green Bay seemed like way too much even for the models. The other 3 picks follow the trend of good teams against really bad ones. This week we have the following trends happening:

1) Seattle is on fire and will continue to be dangerous at home. The seem to be eyeing the playoffs very closely. The Vikings are on the verge of collapse. Exploit!
2) New Orleans coming off a loss against a good defense to face one of the worst defenses in the league. Should be high scoring and one-stop/turnover will help NO win by 2 TDs.
3) Denver's D will not allow points to the 49ers. They win by a TD or more...

I know they are all favorites, but that's the way it came out. I also liked the Rams but bc Chicago was without Trubisky the last two games, the data might not be completely reliable there. Should be a good game and this way I get to cheer for my Bears. Dallas was also a close play this week, should be a good bet if you decide on it.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE -3 -7.30 -4.29 62.00
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 8.0 13.50 5.50 58.00
DENVER @ SAN FRANCISCO 6.0 7.80 1.79 57.18
LA RAMS @ CHICAGO 3.0 4.30 1.29 56.14
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS -4.0 -6.50 -2.50 55.17
DETROIT @ ARIZONA 2.5 -3.50 -6.00 54.84
CAROLINA @ CLEVELAND 1.5 3.50 2.01 53.33
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -4.5 -12.00 -7.50 52.17
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 8.0 14.90 6.93 51.72
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY -7.0 -9.60 -2.58 50.00
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -4.5 -3.40 1.11 50.00
NY JETS @ BUFFALO -3.5 -1.30 2.18 48.29
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY -6.0 -6.70 -0.71 46.00
PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND 10.5 11.60 1.08 45.00
CINCINNATI @ LA CHARGERS -14.0 -13.50 0.55 NA
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON 4.0 NA -6.50 NA