2016 NFL Super Bowl Spread Pick

Pick 1: Patriots -3 correct NFL point spread pick

If there is one impeccable record during our 8 years doing this is the Super Bowl ATS where against the spread we've gone 6-1. This year should be no different.

To get reassurance, I used my employers technology to validate or disprove what our models were saying. We looked at online conversations around this year’s playoff games. For each game we analyzed all the tweets in the week leading up to the game. The winner of the game was simply predicted by taking the team who the majority of people expressed was going to win. What we found was that, surprisingly, women were far more accurate in their predictions. For example, during the 2016 playoffs, the only two games where the majority of the women were wrong were the Oakland-Houston and Green Bay-Dallas game.

As for the models it was clear that the Patriots are predicted to cover the spread. Plus it's Brady-Belichick killer combination. That's all I got for this year. It's been disastrous and some heavy thinking will need to happen during the off season in order to get back on track. Good luck on the Super Bowl and see you all in Vegas.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ATLANTA - NEW ENGLAND -3 -10.2 -7.2 60.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

1 comments:

Jaime Brugueras said...

That was the best football game I have ever seen.