2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Cleveland +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Minnesota +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Los Angeles +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

That's right, Cleveland even with Josh McCown. I would usually stay away from a bet when a key player is out but I do think this benefits Cleveland. There's a pretty high probability that they break their winless record this week so at least here we're hoping they win or lose by less than 7. The others are solid picks except for Los Angeles which I'm not super excited to bet against New Orleans at home.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ CLEVELAND 7 -2.0 -9.0 61.7%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA -4.5 -8.3 -3.8 59.1%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT -2.5 2.8 5.3 58.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ORLEANS -7 -4.0 3.0 57.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI -7.5 -6.1 1.4 54.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO -7 -5.0 2.0 54.8%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -4.5 0.1 4.6 53.8%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -3.5 -5.8 -2.3 52.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 8 10 2.0 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 -4.3 -0.8 50.7%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -7 -8.1 -1.1 50.0%
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY 5.5 4.6 -0.9 50.0%
CAROLINA @ OAKLAND -4 -5.7 -1.7 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON -1 2.8 3.8 48.5%
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS 6 -1.6 -7.6 NA
TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO 3.5 -1.3 -4.8 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: KC -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Los Angeles +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

At the top of the list we got two home favorites by 7. Expecting blowouts on both games and will get both games at -7. The NO/CAR is going to be close and NO has a good chance of stealing it from them even though Carolina's D is better than it was when they previously played. Finally the last one is being played in Mexico and so Los Angeles has a much bigger home advantage...lol. Just going with the numbers and avoiding emotions.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY -7 -10.3 -3.3 61.9%
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS -7 -11.4 -4.4 60.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -3.5 0.4 3.9 58.4%
MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES 2.5 -2.3 -4.2 58.0%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA 1 -4.2 -5.2 54.3%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND 9 5.0 -4.0 53.7%
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS -7.5 -4.8 2.7 50.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT -6.5 -4.1 2.4 50.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -8.0 -1.5 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 -2.9 0.1 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON -2.5 -3.0 -0.5 50.0%
OAKLAND - HOUSTON 6 3 -3.0 49.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO 13 14.5 1.5 47.4%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI -3 -3.5 -0.5 46.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: San Diego -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia +1
Pick 4: Cincinnati +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

I can't really talk. Still shocked about last week, what a week! Cubs win the World Series, Trump wins the White House and we go 0-4. Something's cursed! That sucked and it exposed my biggest fear, if the model really needs more weeks of data and only starts working later in the season. Idk, so we'll continue monitoring.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Happy gambling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO -4 -8.8 -4.8 61.4%
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS -2.5 -0.5 2.0 60.1%
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA 1 -2.8 -3.8 59.4%
CINCINNATI @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -0.3 2.2 58.1%
KANSAS CITY @ CAROLINA -3 3.4 6.4 55.1%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -10 -7 3 54.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA -13.5 -8.6 4.9 52.6%
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY 1 -0.5 1.5 50.0%
SEATTLE @ NEW ENGLAND -7.5 -7.7 -0.2 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ TENNESSEE 2.5 -2.1 -4.6 50.0%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 1.4 -0.1 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON -3 -3.1 -0.1 50.0%
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH -2.5 -3.0 -0.5 49.7%
LOS ANGELES @ NY JETS -2 -3.8 -1.8 48.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: KC -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh -2 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Jets +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick

My computer finally broke. 8 years of crunching NFL data and two businesses later, my computer has passed away. Took me a while to get up to speed, still working on a few kinks, but at least I was able to transfer all data and models into another computer. Below are week 9 picks.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $460 bet. Go Cubs Go!...I wish you all successful sports investing this week!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY -7 -10.2 -3.2 62.7%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE 2 5.5 3.5 59.0%
NY JETS @ MIAMI -3.5 1.5 5.0 58.4%
DENVER @ OAKLAND -1 3.1 4.1 58.0%
DALLAS @ CLEVELAND 7.5 0.4 -7.1 55.6%
CAROLINA @ LOS ANGELES 3 4.9 1.9 54.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -13.8 -6.3 53.0%
BUFFALO @ SEATTLE -7 -7.6 -0.6 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.5 4 -0.5 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -4.1 -1.6 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO -5 -3.8 1.2 49.3%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -6 -8.8 -2.8 48.0%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 5 6.3 1.3 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.