2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: San Francisco +10 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -10.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Cincinnati +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Finally! But looks like everyone cashed in last week. Apparently casinos took a bad hit on week 15, making all of us winners. So at least, I got some easy action. On to this week... SF under-valued, Carolina to continue its streak, KC to blow Cleveland away, Arizona at home and Denver to continue struggling.

We will continue betting close to 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ DETROIT -10 -6.4 3.6 59.1%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA 7 10.2 3.2 59.0%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY -10.5 -15.5 -5.0 58.9%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA -4.5 -6.7 -2.2 57.7%
CINCINNATI @ DENVER -3.5 5.8 9.3 57.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 3 6.2 3.2 53.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -6.5 -3.0 52.7%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE -13.5 -6.3 7.2 52.2%
DALLAS @ BUFFALO -6 -6.4 -0.4 50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ MIAMI -2.5 10.0 12.5 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE 10 6.0 -4.0 50.0%
CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY -3 -0.4 2.6 44.3%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -3 -1.1 1.9 44.3%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA -5.5 -8.9 -3.4 40.0%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND -6 -1.4 4.6 38.5%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE -4.5 10.0 14.5 35.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: St. Louis -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay -3 correct NFL point spread pick

Ok the boat hopefully has hit bottom. You're definitely now better off doing the opposite. I of course need to keep believing and continue posting my picks. We'll continue running the models and making picks until the end of the season. Hopefully we have a good run during the playoffs were we place a higher percent of whatever is left of the bankroll at that point.

We will continue betting 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $400 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ST LOUIS -2 -4.6 -2.6 63.6%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA 3 6.0 3.0 58.1%
GREEN BAY @ OAKLAND 3 7.2 4.2 57.0%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS -3 -3.6 -0.6 56.0%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS 3 1.2 -1.8 54.8%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO -1.5 -6.0 -4.5 52.3%
NY JETS @ DALLAS 3 6.6 3.6 50.0%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS 5 8.9 3.9 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE 7.5 6.9 -0.6 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND -14 -19.2 -5.2 50.0%
BUFFALO @ WASHINGTON 0 3.8 3.8 50.0%
DENVER @ PITTSBURGH -6 5.4 11.4 49.1%
ATLANTA @ JACKSONVILLE -3 1.2 4.2 48.9%
CLEVELAND @ SEATTLE -14.5 -15.0 -0.5 47.4%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -5.5 -10.6 -5.1 47.3%
CINCINNATI @ SAN FRANCISCO 4.5 17.3 12.8 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Indianapolis +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Francisco +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Cincinnati -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

The ship keeps on sinking and there seems to be no turning back. This week we scale it back to three hopefully solid picks. We are buying the half points on both the Denver and Carolina game if we need to. Will probably wait until right before kickoff to see if we can get it without having to buy the points. I'm actually glad all of you keep putting your picks on the comments, it helps with some last minute personal placements.

We will raise betting to 25% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game. But again, the failure of this year's analysis of NFL point spread would lead you to think you may put a bet on the opposite. I won't but I'm just saying.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE -1 5.2 6.2 61.4%
OAKLAND @ DENVER -7.5 -10.0 -2.5 58.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CLEVELAND -1.5 2.8 4.3 57.8%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -3 -11.3 -8.3 57.5%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -9 -13.1 -4.1 55.0%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY -10 -11.6 -1.6 54.0%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -8.4 -0.9 53.9%
TENNESSEE @ NY JETS -7 -9.5 -2.5 53.2%
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA -9 -5.7 3.3 52.1%
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO -3.5 -3.0 0.5 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY -3.5 1.0 4.5 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON 3.5 3.0 -0.5 50.0%
NY GIANTS @ MIAMI 1.5 1.5 0.0 50.0%
BUFFALO @ PHILADELPHIA 1 0.6 -0.4 50.0%
SEATTLE @ BALTIMORE 9 7.1 -1.9 48.5%
DETROIT @ ST LOUIS 1 -0.3 -1.3 48.7%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Carolina-7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Houston +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Baltimore +4 correct NFL point spread pick

How low can you go? I can't believe Arizona and Buffalo didn't cover. As soon as the Giants game started I was skeptical. Everything is easy in retrospect. My confidence is on the floor right now. All of you new visitors, you are better off betting the opposite of what I say. I'm really hoping for a good streak here, even if it's just two winning weeks, that's not too much to ask is it? Ok c'mon, if the Bears and Texans can turn it around so could I :)

We will continue betting 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $400 per game. Buyer beware, these NFL point spread picks aren't getting any better as the season progresses.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS 7 13.5 6.5 59.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO -7 -15.0 -8.0 59.0%
HOUSTON @ BUFFALO -3 3.1 6.1 58.0%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI -4 4.8 8.8 57.4%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS 6 1.8 -4.2 53.1%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY -2 1.1 2.9 52.5%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 10 15.4 5.4 51.7%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 4.5 8.3 3.8 51.2%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 3 1.7 -1.3 50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH -6.5 -0.1 6.4 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT 3 2.8 -0.2 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ENGLAND -9.5 -11.8 -2.3 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -2.5 -0.8 1.7 50.4%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON -4.5 -8.1 -3.6 49.0%
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA 0 -8.9 -8.9 49.0%
NY JETS @ NY GIANTS 2 2.0 0.0 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.