Pick 2: Seattle +1
Pick 3: San Diego -4.5
Pick 4: Dallas -3
Pick 5: New England +3
I have no regrets regarding the picks last week. They were solid picks, no emotions, pure data and the right ones given the situation. New England of course was the right pick and also a blowout. Denver should have pull that one off and so should KC. I still think weather wasn't the tipping big factor. Like some of the comments in the post last week, I can't expect to win every week although it would be nice. Models can't and won't account for everything, but one tries to determine the key variables that do drive the predictions and in the long run it should work and pay off. We're now going to week 13 which means that there are still 4 weeks in the regular season and then the playoffs. Plenty of time to come out with huge gains!
This week we have 5 premium picks. I have to get them out on Monday as I will be traveling without my data-crunching computer. Usually too many picks for my taste but it is what it is. I have lost betting Denver the last two weeks and KC is a homedog. SF at home by 1. The SD/BAL makes me a little nervous given that I don't know where the line is, but if I can't remove it. Finally, NE is going to Lambeau. There is one free computer-based predictions that doesn't look too bad and that's Carolina. We have two Thanksgiving night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we raise the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 5 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $400 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENVER @ KANSAS CITY | 2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 62.5% |
| SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | -1 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 61.0% |
| SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE | -4.5 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 59.3% |
| PHILADEPHIA @ DALLAS | -3 | -7.0 | -4.0 | 58.3% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ GREEN BAY | -3 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 58.1% |
| CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA | -2.5 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 56.5% |
| NY GIANTS @ JACKSONVILLE | 3 | 0.4 | -2.6 | 55.8% |
| OAKLAND @ ST LOUIS | -7 | -7.7 | -0.7 | 54.8% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ PITTSBURGH | -3 | -4.8 | -1.8 | 52.1% |
| CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO | -1.5 | -7.0 | -5.5 | 50.0% |
| ARIZONA @ ATLANTA | 2.5 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 50.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ TAMPA BAY | 4 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 49.9% |
| WASHINGTON @ INDIANAPOLIS | -10 | -10.1 | -0.1 | 48.4% |
| CHICAGO @ DETROIT | -7 | -4.1 | 2.9 | 48.2% |
| TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON | -6 | -9.9 | -3.9 | 47.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.