2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Denver -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Diego -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Dallas -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: New England +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

I have no regrets regarding the picks last week. They were solid picks, no emotions, pure data and the right ones given the situation. New England of course was the right pick and also a blowout. Denver should have pull that one off and so should KC. I still think weather wasn't the tipping big factor. Like some of the comments in the post last week, I can't expect to win every week although it would be nice. Models can't and won't account for everything, but one tries to determine the key variables that do drive the predictions and in the long run it should work and pay off. We're now going to week 13 which means that there are still 4 weeks in the regular season and then the playoffs. Plenty of time to come out with huge gains!

This week we have 5 premium picks. I have to get them out on Monday as I will be traveling without my data-crunching computer. Usually too many picks for my taste but it is what it is. I have lost betting Denver the last two weeks and KC is a homedog. SF at home by 1. The SD/BAL makes me a little nervous given that I don't know where the line is, but if I can't remove it. Finally, NE is going to Lambeau. There is one free computer-based predictions that doesn't look too bad and that's Carolina. We have two Thanksgiving night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we raise the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 5 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $400 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY 2 5.2 3.2 62.5%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -1 1.7 2.7 61.0%
SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE -4.5 0.9 5.4 59.3%
PHILADEPHIA @ DALLAS -3 -7.0 -4.0 58.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ GREEN BAY -3 4.7 7.7 58.1%
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA -2.5 2.1 4.4 56.5%
NY GIANTS @ JACKSONVILLE 3 0.4 -2.6 55.8%
OAKLAND @ ST LOUIS -7 -7.7 -0.7 54.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ PITTSBURGH -3 -4.8 -1.8 52.1%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO -1.5 -7.0 -5.5 50.0%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA 2.5 12.3 9.8 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ TAMPA BAY 4 12.6 8.6 49.9%
WASHINGTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -10 -10.1 -0.1 48.4%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -7 -4.1 2.9 48.2%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -6 -9.9 -3.9 47.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Denver -7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England -7 correct NFL point spread pick

Every week is a learning experience. In retrospect, the New Orleans pick was a bad one given that the difference between prediction and vegas was small and when tinkering with the weights a bit, it would provide much different results. This means that the model was relying to heavily on recent success for the Saints. The Denver pick I think was the right one given the circumstance. I was a bit shocked with not the cover but the straight up win. I smelled blood in the Sunday night and Monday night game and again looking back I should have notified you through Twitter to go at if you had the chance. It wouldn't have changed the results here, but meant to tell you that I felt more comfortable with those picks than the confidence explained. Anyways, after this week we are at 56.8% ATS for the season and 8.1% ROI.

This week we have 3 solid premium picks. There are some free computer-based predictions that don't look too bad either. We have the Thurday night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $650 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ DENVER -7.5 -14.7 -7.2 62.9%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 7 -15.6 -8.6 58.6%
DETROIT @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -12.3 -5.3 58.0%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -6 -2.2 3.8 57.4%
CLEVELAND @ ATLANTA -3.5 -1.4 2.1 55.6%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON -1.5 2.4 3.9 55.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -14 -18.6 -4.6 54.3%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ORLEANS -3 1.7 4.7 53.8%
TAMPA BAY @ CHICAGO -6 -7.4 -1.4 52.5%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA 10 8.3 -1.7 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ SAN FRANCISCO -9 -7.3 1.7 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO -5 -6.6 -1.6 50.0%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 4.5 1.0 49.2%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO -4.5 -5.1 -0.6 48.7%
TENNESSEE @ PHILADELPHIA -11 -15.9 -4.9 47.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -10 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Francisco -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Perfect week last week! The picks couldn't have gone any better. We finished 3-0 ATS with two of the picks being huge blowouts. This puts us at 58% ATS for the season and 16% ROI. As happy as I was for the perfect picks, I was disappointed with my Bears and their humiliating loss against the Packers. I will continue to work hard for you and provide more great weeks like this one.

This week we have again 3 picks over the 58% confidence threshold. These three picks are only available to premium members. All other computer-based NFL picks are free to everyone. Some noteables mention in the free picks include Arizona and Minnesota. But although the models are pointing their way, Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson are not well accounted for in these games (so probably just better to stick with the premium picks). This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $675 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ NEW ORLEANS -7 -9.4 -2.4 61.2%
DENVER @ ST LOUIS 10 15.5 5.5 59.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS 4.5 7.8 3.3 58.0%
DETROIT @ ARIZONA -1.5 -7.5 -6.0 56.3%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO -3.5 -2.4 1.1 54.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 -0.9 1.6 53.6%
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE 6 0.7 -5.3 52.9%
SEATTLE @ KANSAS CITY -1 -4.7 -3.7 52.3%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -2 -6.0 -4.0 50.6%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI -5.5 -3.9 1.6 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY -6 9.5 15.5 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON -7 -11.5 -4.5 50.0%
HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND -3.5 0.2 3.7 49.7%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -10 -12.4 -2.4 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: Denver -12 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -6 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Arizona -7 correct NFL point spread pick

That was a great bounce back with a 3-1 ATS. The one loss was way off with Miami destroying the sinking Chargers, but at least in only counts as one loss. Indianapolis also bounced back with strength as they dominated the Giants on the road. Staying on course with the data and not being influenced by emotions and recent games is important to any bettor. This week we also have 3 solid NFL picks. The models are unanimously picking these teams and picks. As always, below is the list of free NFL point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.

This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. You can see that so far we've had better success in the front half of the season where bankroll was around 12%-15% and now it's been consistently at 18%. This explains why we have hardly any ROI but the ATS is at 54.8%. See below for a list for free NFL point spread predictions. The 4 premium picks have already been sent to all premium members.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ OAKLAND 12 20.2 8.2 60.6%
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA -6 -11.8 -5.8 58.4%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA -7 -12.5 -5.5 58.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS -5 1.2 6.2 55.5%
PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS 6 3.7 -2.3 55.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY -7.5 -2.3 5.2 55.0%
TENNESSEE @ BALTIMORE -10 -13.0 -3.0 53.8%
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO 2.5 9.9 7.4 52.8%
NY GIANTS @ SEATTLE -9.5 -15.9 -6.4 50.0%
MIAMI @ DETROIT -3 1.5 4.5 50.0%
DALLAS - JACKSONVILLE 6.5 4.8 -1.7 49.7%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -6.5 -10.9 -4.4 49.5%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 1.5 -6.5 -8.0 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.