2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went 1-2 and overall the picks were at a mere 23% ATS and 47% straight up. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. Here are NFLpickles' week 4 picks:































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY1.5-6.5-8.062.0%
PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON-43760.9%
DENVER @ GREEN BAY-13-17.5-4.560.5%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE4.514.610.159.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND4.510.35.859.6%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA-7-8.0-1.055.1%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO-7-10-354.1%
NY JETS @ BALTIMORE-3.5-1.22.353.6%
DETROIT @ DALLAS-1-2.3-1.353.6%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI3-1.7-4.751.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TAMPA BAY-10-0.59.551.5%
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND-1-1.9-0.950.7%
WASHINGTON @ ST LOUIS06.16.150.4%
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO-6.5-33.550.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE75.8-1.250.0%
NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA1.5-3-4.549.6%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 3

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went 0-4 and overall the picks were at a mere 42% ATS and 68% straight up. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. Here are NFLpickles week 3 picks:
























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY-1.53.04.566.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ CAROLINA-3.58.311.858.9%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE3.5-5.7-9.258.0%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA-7.5-10-2.556.4%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO3.51-2.554.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO-14.5-17-2.553.5%
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS10.514-3.553.3%
HOUSTON @ NEW ORLEANS-4-3151.3%
NY JETS @ OAKLAND3.510.57.051.1%
BALTIMORE @ ST LOUIS48.74.750.8%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA3.5-0.9-4.450.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO8.514.47.950.5%
MIAMI @ CLEVELAND-2.50.12.650.0%
DENVER @ TENNESSEE-6.5-7.6-1.150.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI-2.5-3.0-0.549.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 2

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went only 2-2 although overall all the picks were 68% ATS and 75% straight up, not bad. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. I'm only posting these so that you can track my progress. Use at your own risk, you've been warned. Be patient, this year we're going to crush it!































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA9.521.011.561.1%
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS-6.52.79.260.5%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI3-1.8-4.858.7%
ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON-4-17.0-13.058.1%
ST LOUIS @ NY GIANTS-4.5-6.5-2.057.5%
CINCINNATI @ DENVER-4.50.85.355.6%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA2.5-1.3-3.854.7%
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE67154.1%
DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO31.7-1.354.1%
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT-8.5-53.551.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ NY JETS-9.5-10.5-1.050.0%
OAKLAND @ BUFFALO-3.5-2.01.550.0%
SEATTLE @ PITTSBURGH-14.5-122.550.0%
SAN DIEGO @ NEW ENGLAND-7-12-549.0%
CLEVELAND @ INDIANAPOLIS2.541.548.5%
TAMPA BAY @ MINNESOTA-3-5.0-248.5%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL ATS Standings 2011

Final point spread standings for the 2011 NFL regular season.

NFL Team standings against the point spread - 2011.
Updated: 1/06/2011














































































































































































































































TeamWLTPct
NEW ORLEANS124075%
SAN FRANCISCO114173%
GREEN BAY115069%
HOUSTON105167%
SEATTLE105167%
OAKLAND106063%
MIAMI96160%
NEW ENGLAND96160%
CINCINNATI86257%
ARIZONA97056%
CAROLINA97056%
KANSAS CITY97056%
BALTIMORE87153%
NY GIANTS87153%
PHILADELPHIA88050%
ATLANTA77250%
CHICAGO78147%
CLEVELAND78147%
DENVER78147%
DETROIT78147%
JACKSONVILLE78147%
PITTSBURGH79044%
MINNESOTA68243%
BUFFALO69140%
NY JETS69140%
TENNESSEE69140%
WASHINGTON69140%
INDIANAPOLIS610038%
SAN DIEGO610038%
DALLAS510133%
TAMPA BAY412025%
ST LOUIS312120%

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are bad at the beginning of the season and the first week even worst. The statistical models need to pick up data in order to be more accurate. The system does not account for trades or important players not in the roster. I'm only posting these so that you and sites like thepredictiontracker.com can track my progress. Use at your own risk, you've been warned. Be patient, this year we're going to crush it!































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY-1.52.84.361.9%
DALLAS @ NY JETS-4.5-9.5-559.7%
ATLANTA @ CHICAGO36358.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON-8.5-10-1.557.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE-1-7.0-6.056.0%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE-2.511.914.455.9%
OAKLAND @ DENVER-315.218.255.5%
PHILADELPHIA @ ST LOUIS511.66.654.5%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND-6.53.19.654.2%
MINNESOTA @ SAN DIEGO-8.5-3.35.852.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY-4-10.0-6.051.4%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY-6-5151.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI734.127.150.4%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO-5.5-16.2-10.750.3%
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA-7-10-350.3%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON33.00.050.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFLpickles.com History

We started in 2007 jutting down real-time decision NFL picks against the spread. An algorithm was built to analyze offensive, defensive, spread, team, and other stats. Most times, we just make the computer NFL pick, but sometimes there are players injured and different other conditions that we need to consider to pull the game out of the picks.

THE Metric
I thought about pulling all kinds of stats regarding NFL Pickles, you can see many of these at thepredictiontracker.com. But I realized there is only one metric that matters, return on investment. Not the percentage against the spread (ATS), but ROI. At NFLpickles we weight each week and game differently and using various percentage of bankrolls through out each week (more is used at the end of the season, from 15% to 25% of bankroll). Therefore, this metric is the one that makes most sense since it is the one we are trying to optimize.

NFLpicks-ROI

As you will above, each year I start trending upwards starting at around week 10 to 11. On the playoffs I do well and have finished with 111%, 67%, and 17% (last year). In 2008, is when we implemented using Kelly's Formula in order to avoid the same variations we saw that year. 2009 and 2010 look surprisingly similar after week 10. We hope this year is a very successful one!